Restaurant Business Quarterly | Q4 2024

Breaking: The chicken busi- ness is thriving. Consumers clearly love chicken right now and they re- ally love chicken in limited-service formats. The fast-casual chicken sector includes some highly successful and fast-growing concepts. Aver- age growth last year alone was 17%, for instance, thanks to chains like Dave’s Hot Chicken, which doubled in size and has grown by a ridiculous 6,800% over the past five years. But it also includes both Raising Cane’s and Wingstop, two of the best performing large chains in the U.S. Yet quick-service chicken con- cepts aren’t to be forgotten, either, even if bone-in chicken chains like KFC and Church’s have strug- gled. Sales at those chains are up 53% over the past five years, led by Chick-fil-A, up 78%.

CHICKEN RULES THE ROOST LIMITED-SERVICE CHICKEN SALES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, BOTH AT FAST-CASUAL AND QUICK- SERVICE CHAINS.

On the other hand, sandwich- es. The quick-service sandwich sector remains fully dominated by Subway. The Miami-based giant has 20,000 units and accounts for two-thirds of sales in that sector. Its sales last year were down 2% com- pared with five years ago. The remaining competitors just aren’t big enough to make up for the loss of more than $200 million in sales. That, indeed, is one of the chal- lenges of analyzing sectors: Some of them are entirely too dependent on the large chains at the top. Fast-casual sandwich chains have performed better, thanks to Jersey Mike’s (up 150% the last five years) and chains such as Paris Ba- guette (up 129%). But the sector’s growth, 26%, was still under aver- age for limited-service restaurants, where sales are up 33% over the past five years.

SUBWAY'S U.S. SYSTEM SALES SUBWAY'S U.S. SYSTEM SALES HAVE YET TO RECOVER FROM THE PANDEMIC, DESPITE IMPROVEMENTS IN AVERAGE UNIT VOLUMES SINCE 2020.

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OCTOBER 2024 RESTAURANT BUSINESS

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